"The Human Cost of Covid Restrictions"

 I know I posted something a couple of days ago about Covid Restrictions, but I will continue to add more material.  Sure, this article focuses more on the aviation industry, but it bleeds over into the general economy, and more information that I can out there and if helps someone with information to counteract the coming madness as I see the rumors of coming restrictions and mask mandates as there is "Supposedly" some super strain from Africa.(How convenient you know)  I personally believe that this is a cover to run the same playbook the donks and their apparatchiks used in the 2020 election to scare the crap out of people and push the "Mail In ballots" that were so successful in the 2020 elections to in effect to "steal the Elections like they did in 2020.  Sure, that happened 2.5 years ago, but my belief hasn't changed, matter of fact it has solidified and the subsequent charges against the presumptive frontrunner from the GOP every time there is a problem for the Bidens, Trump collects another indictment to push the Biden drama off the news cycle.

Credit: Chalabala / Getty Images

The financial cost to airlines worldwide of the coronavirus pandemic has been well documented, with estimates in the $280 billion range for the two worst years of 2020 and 2021. 

The industry also proved to be resilient in the face of its worst ever crisis, with IATA now forecasting a net profit of around $10 billion for airlines as a collective in 2023, although most carriers will remain deeply in debt.

What has been less widely reported is the cost for human populations of government policies that were swiftly introduced in the early weeks and months of the pandemic and that targeted and severely restricted global air travel. 

At the end of the day, it wasn’t the coronavirus that brought the global passenger air transport system almost to a standstill (cargo operations continued but under severe constraints); it was the border shutdowns, mandatory quarantines, and multiple and expensive testing processes that prevented or dissuaded people from flying. And in many regions, those rules continued for months—in some cases years—after vaccination programs were well established and data pointed to the ineffectiveness of such rules to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Scientific data also showed that flying did not raise the risk of catching the coronavirus. On the contrary, the hospital-grade HEPA filters on modern airliners combined with masking and the natural barriers provided by seatbacks made them one of the safest places to be, certainly safer than a restaurant or grocery store.

All this was mostly ignored by governments, which for the most part implemented, then stuck with, prolonged air travel restrictions regardless of whether they did any good.

But reports are now coming out from a set of independent studies—many conducted by top medical and university organizations worldwide—that show that far from doing any good, these rules did great harm. And for all the immense cost to airlines, those rules inflicted far worse on the economies and citizens of the nations that governments were supposedly trying to protect.

The September ATW cover story “World in Chains” reports on the calamitous findings of these studies. For the most part, the government rules did little to nothing to stop the spread of the virus. At best, they delayed the spread to some remote islands by a few weeks at most and ultimately, they did not prevent infection.

Without their vital air connections, 90 million people fell into extreme poverty, receiving less than $2.15 per day as tourism and export demand collapsed. About 350 million people were pushed into food insecurity, risking starvation, according to the United Nations. Tragically, it was the poorest and most vulnerable who suffered most and will, undoubtedly, find it hardest to recover.

As Subhas Menon, director general at the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, put it, “government response was generally knee-jerk as well as isolationist and parochial.”

While governments and their people are understandably eager to move on and put the dark years of the pandemic behind them—something that is clear by the huge demand for air travel last summer and in 2023—the wider lessons of the effect of these policies need to be broadcast and understood.

A professor involved in one of the studies has called for an investigation similar to that which typically follows an air crash, and it’s a sensible and perhaps urgent call. Reports are emerging of yet another coronavirus variant taking hold. Thankfully, there’s also likely to be a vaccine up to task of mitigating the effects on human life. 

But given how reluctant governments were to turn back their border and air travel policies in the face of strong scientific data, why should the air transport industry or the general public trust or believe that governments will behave more wisely and rationally if there is another COVID-19 wave?

In any human crisis, the air transport system can be a vital part of the solution. Directly, it can get medical experts, equipment and food swiftly to where they are needed. The global air cargo system delivered ventilators, masks and then vaccines throughout the pandemic. Indirectly, air connectivity also delivers people, trade, and prosperity. Will that lesson be learned?