Webster

The Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions." --American Statesman Daniel Webster (1782-1852)


Tuesday, March 18, 2025

New Information on the Boeing 797?

 I clipped this from "Simply Flying".  The Boeing 757 is my favorite airplane, there is nothing else that can do what she does, but the truth of the matter is that she is getting long in the tooth and as much as I want her to fly for ever, reality doesn't work that way.  To me Boeing made a strategic error in killing the B757 line and putting all their eggs on the 737 basket.  They had told the airlines that the B737-900 can do what the 757 can do...so they stretched the tube, but the 900 uses the same engine type as the earlier carnations of the plane so the extra length just made the plane heavier and shortened the range and cut the performance parameters of the plane.  So the airlines are starting to go with the Airbus offerings of the A321 XLR which is the closest to fitting the performance parameters of the B757.  Boeing has in my mind dithered on the B797 (NMA) because they lost sight of what was important , their customers.  Now Airbus is grabbing to snag a even larger share of the commercial market while Boeing fumbles getting the B737-max and the B777X out the door.  


    The article is "Simply Flying" opinion...


Boeing has often dominated the headlines in recent years for all the wrong reasons. For example, the Boeing 737 Max crashes, quality concerns, poor delivery numbers, FAA oversight, massive cost overruns on military and space contracts, and delays with its Boeing 777X . However, the development of a clean-sheet new aircraft could offer Boeing a chance at redemption, a return to cutting-edge innovation and the opportunity to pull ahead of Airbus . At the center of this is the New Midsize Airplane (NMA) dubbed the Boeing 797 . And yet some say that the boat has already sailed for Boeing.


In the context of the massive worker strike Boeing was suffering in September 2024, Boeing made a media release entitled, "Boeing Historic Contract Offer and Tentative Agreement with IAM Districts 751 & W24." While the agreement failed and workers continued to strike, it was intended to placate the workers and convince them to resume work.

Boeing 777 everett factory
Photo: First Class Photography | Shutterstock

"Boeing’s roots are here in Washington. It is where generations of workers have built incredible airplanes that connect the world. And it’s why we’re excited that, as part of the contract, our team in the Puget Sound region will build Boeing’s next new airplane. This would go along with our other flagship models, meaning job security for generations to come. It’s a big commitment to you and to our community." - Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Stephanie Pope

The reference to "Boeing's next new airplane" is widely interpreted as the NMA or Boeing 797. It was taken as confirmation that Boeing would indeed develop the aircraft . Since then, there has been little to no reporting on the project. Much of the discourse on the 797 is in the realm of speculation. There has been debate about whether the aircraft will be a narrowbody like the 757 or a widebody like the 767.

One of Boeing's most iconic and loved passenger jets is the Boeing 757 . The long, pencil-shaped, narrowbody offered a midsize aircraft option between the Boeing 767 and the larger Boeing 737 variants. However, Boeing made the decision to shutter production in 2004 and close the production line down with 1,050 757s delivered.

Today, around half of the Boeing 757s delivered remain in operation. Most of these are found in the United States, and many are freighter variants. The Boeing 757 is progressively retiring. Delta and FedEx have recently trimmed their fleets , while Icelandair is progressively retiring its fleets of Boeing 757s. Additionally, Jet2 retired the last of its Boeing 757 fleet in early 2025 , bringing an end to the 757 in the United Kingdom.

The Boeing 757's related aircraft, the small widebody Boeing 767, is also in need of replacement. The last major order from a passenger carrier for the Boeing 767 was back in 2008. The 767's production line has since been kept afloat due to it being ordered as a freighter.

However, Boeing only has a remaining backlog of 104 Boeing 767s, making it by far the lowest of its four commercial aircraft. It seems only a matter of time before the 767 production line is shut down for good. That said, the United States Air Force Boeing KC-46 Pegasus Ariel tanker is also based on the 767 and has helped to keep the program afloat.

Delta Boeing 757-200 landing
Photo: The Global Guy I Shutterstock

Regardless, no new passenger Boeing 757s and 767s are being ordered. At the same time, the world's fleets of passenger 757s and 767s are being retired. This means that any airline purchasing Boeing aircraft has to choose between Boeing 737 MAX variants and Boeing 787 Dreamliner variants. This has left a major gap for a mid-sized plane. One idea floated in 2020, was that Boeing could revive the plans to develop the Boeing 787-3 variant to fill the market segment.

Related
The Last Passenger Boeing 767: Where Is It Flying?

Now only produced in freighter and tanker form, where is the last passenger 767 flying these days? And for who?

There's no other way to put it. Over the last decade or so, Boeing has fallen ever more behind its rival, Airbus. Boeing was once the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer in the world, and now Airbus comfortably claims that accolade. While Airbus made the mistake of developing the A380 (it never recouped its development costs), and Boeing pulled ahead with its 787 Dreamliner in 2011, this hasn't been enough to change the overall trajectory.

In 2021, FlightGlobal stated that Boeing needs to make a decision quickly and to "begin work on a design for a planned new mid-market aircraft (NMA) if it is to remain competitive against Airbus."

parked-boeing-737-max-8-aircraft-at-renton-shutterstock_1518781022
Photo: Thiago B Trevisan | Shutterstock

Also, in 2021, FlightGlobal reported, "Aerospace analysts are increasingly in agreement that Boeing must build a new narrowbody jet – lest it lose a huge chunk of valuable market share to competitor Airbus." That was four years ago, and there has been almost no news on Boeing developing the jet and Airbus has continued to claim more of the market share.

Boeing 737 deliveries:

Airbus A320 family delivered:

Difference:

2018 (last 'normal' 737 year)

580

626

-46

2019

127

642

-515

2020

43

446

-403

2021

263

483

-220

2022

387

516

-129

2023

396

571

-175

2024

265

602

-337

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The Boeing 737 has been in service since 1968 and the A320 since 1988. For years, the Boeing 737 has boasted the most cumulative deliveries of any commercial jet. However, that margin has been completely erased with only a few dozen units separating the two families. The Airbus A320 has made up for the 737's 20-year headstart and is set to become the most delivered jet in history in 2025 .

Boeing has not had a 'normal' year since 2018, when it shipped a record 806 commercial aircraft. Since then, the MAX crisis, COVID-19, and other issues have massively suppressed its ability to deliver jets at the levels it once did. At the same time, Airbus has managed to eat its way into the Boeing market share. Perhaps more worrying, the MAX crisis could be more of a symptom than a cause of Boeing's problem, indicating deeper issues in the organization.

While Boeing is working to bring its delayed Boeing 777X into service in 2026 , there is a perception that the giant has stagnated. Producing a revitalized current-generation 777 is not enough to overcome that perception.

Boeing first determined in 2015 that the market was large enough to launch a new design. However, ten years later, a concrete new design has not materialized. Instead, there has been endless dithering and redesigns.

Airbus A321XLR fuselage at ILA Berlin
Photo: Photofex_AUT | Shutterstock

Boeing 737 MAX variants:

Range (nautical miles):

Airbus A321 variants:

Range (nautical miles):

737-7

3,800

A321XLR

4,700

737-8

3,500

A321LR

4,000

737-9

3,300

A321neo

3,500

737-10

3,100

There is demand for a smaller aircraft able to service medium haul routes, such as those across the Atlantic. Especially the shorter transatlantic routes between the East Coast and Western Europe. Two narrowbody aircraft currently serving these routes are the aging 757 and the new Airbus A31LR/A321XLR.

"The A321XLR is a fully optimized aircraft, creating new exciting opportunities for airlines. Flying up to 4,700NM with a max seating capacity of 244 passengers, it is the lowest risk solution for airlines to open new long-haul routes." - Airbus

Airbus A321XLR
Photo: Airbus

The market for new mid-sized narrowbody aircraft is currently being filled by the Airbus A321XLR. Icelandair is retiring its Boeing 757s in favor of the A321LR and A321XLR. While the 797 remains on the drawing board and the source of speculation, the A321XLR exists, and so that is the aircraft being ordered.

Even if Boeing does choose to develop a mid-sized aircraft, it will not enter service until sometime, likely in the mid-2030s. Within that time, airlines looking for a mid-sized aircraft will likely continue to purchase extended-range Airbus A321s.

Related
Delta Air Lines & JetZero Announce Plans For A Commercial Blended Wing Airliner

JetZero is aiming to operate its first demonstrator flight in 2027.

The airline industry is working on new aircraft designs. These include blended wing bodies (BWD), hybrid-powered aircraft, electric-powered aircraft, and hydrogen-powered aircraft. This leads to debate about whether the 797 will be another evolution of existing legacy aircraft, or if it will be the first revolutionary design. Perhaps it could be hybrid electric-powered or electric-powered (at least for short-haul routes).

JetZero BWB Aircraft rear view
Photo: JetZero

Unfortunately, all of this remains speculative. After all, it's still unclear if the 797 will be a widebody or a narrowbody, or even if it will be built at all. However, what is clear is that when there is an economically worthwhile demand, eventually, someone will move in to take advantage of it. If Boeing sticks with the safe, tried and tested, it risks losing its pioneering edge.

It should be noted that while Airbus released its vision of a future-generation commercial aircraft in 2020, the startup, JetZero , is actively designing a revolutionary blended-wing body aircraft and plans to fly the first demonstrator in 2027. In 2023, JetZero stated it plans to design a BWB aircraft able to carry 250 passengers and target the New Midmarket Airplane category.

In conclusion, the latest on the Boeing 797 is that there hasn't been much by way of updates on it in months. It remains unclear whether Boeing will build it and what form it might take. It is still unclear if it will take the form of an updated 757-like aircraft or be something revolutionary or at least semi-revolutionary.

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