The New Russian Stealth Bomber?

 I shamelessly clipped this from 2 different sources, from "Aviation News" and also from "Global Security".  Both had slightly different articles on the plane.  It looks similar to our B-2 Spirit so I wonder how well it compares to the Northrop "Wing",  Also the Russian are having problems right now in the Ukraine, but I wonder if this is a "Hero" project and Putin is putting his prestige behind this bomber after the drubbing the Ukrainians are giving him.  Also the Russians are trying to develop their own aerospace industry despite the sanctions from the west, and a lot of their avionics and computers will have to be "homebuilt" and that can be problematic for them because quality control has always been an issue on certain things.  I also wonder if this is Russian propaganda.

PAK DA [also known as Produkt 80 / "Product 80" or Poslannik / "Courier"] is the Russian strategic bomber of new generation produced by "Tupolev". Research and development work on the bomber began in 2009. PAK DA will be subsonic flight speed, aircraft guns will be placed inside his body. The design of the car will be the most widely used radar absorbing materials ( "stealth" technology).

Ruslan PUKHOV, member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), noted in a July 05, 2018 interview with the weekly Zvezda and the Army Standard magazine that under GPV-2020 [State Arms Program for 2018–2027] "The program for creating a promising new generation of strategic Russian bomber (PAK DA) in general, apparently, “departed” for 2030–2035. In view of this, in the next decade, the replenishment of the fleet of VKS and aviation of the Russian Navy will have to continue due to the production of modernized fourth-generation aircraft - Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-35, Tu-160M2 bombers."

In 2015 the decision was announced to resume the production of Tupolev-160 bomber (its upgraded configuration Tupolev-160M2) and to postpone the development of a new generation bomber till a later date. The Defense Ministry said the construction of Tupolev-160M2 would begin in 2023. The Aerospace Force planned to acquire at least 50 such aircraft.

As of February 2017 it was reported that the new bomber was expected to make its first flight sometime before 2021, with the first deliveries starting in 2023. "It is impossible to build a missile-carrying bomber invisible to radars and supersonic at the same time. This is why focus is placed on stealth capabilities. The PAK DA will carry AI-guided missiles with a range of up to 7,000 km. Such a missile can analyze the aerial and radio-radar situation and determine its direction, altitude and speed. We’re already working on such missiles," Bondarev was quoted as saying by the Russian newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta 24 February 2017.

The major design works on developing the advanced PAK DA strategic bomber are due to start after 2021, the commander-in-chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, Victor Bondarev, said on 12 August 2015. "Currently, the design work on developing the PAK DA advanced long range aviation complex is being conducted by the Tupolev company under the contract with the Russian Defense Ministry," Bondarev said, adding that the major works will be implemented after 2021. The new strategic bomber was earlier expected to perform its maiden flight in 2019 and become operational in the Russian Air Force approximately in 2023-2025. Its development has been postponed amid plans to resume series production of a Tu-160M2 bomber in 2023.

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Viktor Bondarev said that the main stages of the experimental design efforts for the PAK DA creation would begin after 2021. However, he said on January 2016 that the advanced strategic long-range aircraft’s prototype may take its maiden flight before 2021. He said the PAK DA creation works are underway and their progress rates were satisfactory. There is a task to conduct the (PAK DA`s) first flight in 2021. If the reached progress rates are maintained, the bomber will take the flight before the targeted time, Bondarev added.

It was earlier planned that the PAK DA bomber would start to be delivered to the Russian army in 2023-2025, and the first tests flights were planned for 2019-2020. It became known later that the creation of Russia’s new strategic bomber would be delayed because of the plans to resume serial production of Tu-160M2 that is planned to be started in 2023.

The Russian Air Force would start receiving its first PAK DA next generation long-range bomber in 2023, Russian Air Force Commander-in-Chief Lt. Gen. Viktor Bondarev said 22 May 2014. Earlier reports said PAK DA bombers could be supplied to the Russian Air Force approximately by 2020. “The maiden flight should be performed in 2019. State tests and supplies will be completed in 2023,” Bondarev said. The head of United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), Mikhail Pogosyan, told reporters earlier that the full-fledged construction work would start in 2014.

While the US for many years had the only operational stealth aircraft, as of 2000 Russia was reportedly designing a stealth bomber. Russia announced plans in 2009 to develop a new strategic bomber featuring stealth technology by 2025. The new bomber is expected to replace the Tu-95MC Bear and Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers, and Tu-22M3 Backfire long-range bombers currently in service with Russia’s strategic aviation. As of 2012 Russia’s strategic air forces operated a total of 63 Tu-95MS and 13 Tu-160 bombers. Altogether, they were capable of carrying 850 long-range cruise missiles.

In December 2009 Russian aircraft maker Tupolev said a new-generation Tu strategic bomber would be developed by 2017. Company President Alexander Bobryshev told Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the research on the new aircraft project should be completed by 2012, while production-line assembly should start in 2020 to 2025. However, Maj. Gen. Anatoly Zhikharev, commander of Russia's strategic aviation said a new strategic bomber, which would use stealth technology, was expected to enter service in 2025-2030. He said the stealth technology would make "the new aircraft difficult to detect by radar, although it is impossible to make airplanes of this type completely invisible."

Russia's Long Range Aviation commander, Major General Anatoly Zhikharev, had said the Air Force could receive the new strategic bomber in 2025. Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has said that a new aircraft assembly line in Russia's Kazan plant (KAPO) would build PAK DA [Perspektivnyi Aviatsionnyi Kompleks Dalney Aviatsyi - Prospective Air Complex for Long Range Aviation.] and the new Antonov An-70 propfan transport aircraft. The same plant previously built the Tu-95MS and Tu-160.

In May 2012, Russia Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin called on Russia's defense industry to develop hypersonic air-breathing weapons as a future strike system. He picked out American development work in the X-51, Falcon, HiFire and HyFly programs as examples of what he described as the perspective threat posed by U.S. hypersonic development work. "The undertaking of this work allows us to lay the basis for creation of a national competitor in hypersonic weapons," he said. Development of such a weapon should be discussed at the highest levels of state, he said. Rogozin, who has special responsibility for the military-industrial complex, insisted Russia has no need to develop a new long-range bomber to replace its existing fleet.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin suggested that with the current and future air and missile defense systems in place, strategic bombers were no longer relevant. “Look at the current level of air defense and anti-missile defense – these aircraft will not get anywhere. Not ours, not theirs,” Rogozin, who oversees defense industry and will soon assume full control over financing of R&D for military purposes, said in an interview with Izvestia. He added that strategic bombers could not be viewed as means of delivering nuclear strikes on enemy territory anymore.

On 09 June 2012 Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev reiterated plans to develop a new, fifth-generation strategic bomber. “Alongside a fifth-generation fighter there are also plans to develop an advanced long-range aviation complex. I am talking about a new strategic bomber,” he said. Maintenance and modernization of the existing strategic bombers is not enough, he added. His remarks come days after a senior cabinet member questioned the need for a new bomber.

Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov told Izvestia in early June 2012 that the new bomber project was underway as planned. “We have made some progress in the development of the new bomber,” Makarov said. “If we reach production phase, this plane will outperform any modern aircraft of the same class, including those built by the Americans.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered development of the new long-range strategic bomber to be sped up in mid-June 2012. Speaking during a conference on defense orders, Putin said: "We have to develop work on the new PAK DA long-range bomber aircraft for Long-Range Aviation. I know how expensive and complex this is. The task is not easy from a scientific-technical standpoint, but we need to start work," Putin said, adding that otherwise, Russia could miss the boat.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said he was in favor of development of the PAK DA long-range bomber for the country's air force, just hours after saying the project was unnecessary, in apparent contravention of President Putin's call last week for domestic aerospace industry to develop just such an aircraft. “I am for PAK DA but it should not be a copy of the B-2. We need to look at the horizon and develop hypersonic long-range aviation, civil and military,” Rogozin said

The outline for a design of the Russian Air Force's future strategic bomber, known as PAK-DA, has been worked out, Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Viktor Bondarev said in June 2012. "The outline of this aircraft is already formed, and the technical and tactical characteristics are being set out," Bondarev said. "I think we have the resources and funding to make the plane on time, so it is ready when we need it as a replacement or addition to our Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers," he added.

The Russian Air Force may receive its first PAK DA next generation long-range bomber about 2020 instead of 2025 as initially planned, Russia’s acting deputy Air Force commander, Major General Alexander Chernyayev, said in late June 2012. “I think the first models of the Prospective Air Complex for Long Range Aviation (PAK DA) will be supplied to the Air Force approximately by 2020,” Chernyayev said in an interview published on the Russian Defense Ministry website. Chernyayev also said in his interview the Russian Air Force was planning to modernize its Tu-95MS, Tu-160 and Tu-22MS bombers, as well as Ilyushin Il-78 Midas air-to-air refueling tanker aircraft.

The general look of the new strategic bomber has already been worked out, and engineers are currently finishing work on aircraft specific operational requirements, Chernyayev said. “We have everything today to develop the plane on time and put it into operation together with [Tupolev] Tu-95MS Bear, Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-22M3 Backfire [strategic bombers], which have proven their high reliability,” he added.

Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who had responsibility for military-industrial affairs, and the Armed Force’s General Staff, disagreed over the need for a new “traditional” strategic bomber. Rogozin said on his blog in June 2012 that it would be undesirable for Russia to "go down the American route," and produce a bomber like the Northrop B-2, and repeated his earlier calls for a hypersonic air vehicle system instead of a traditional long-range bomber. In earlier comments, Rogozin had appeared to dismiss the need for PAK-DA, saying long-range bombers would fall victim to air defense systems long before reaching their targets.

The Russian Air Force has approved the conceptual design and specification of its future PAK-DA strategic bomber, paving the way for development of components for the aircraft, Air Force Commander Lt. Gen. Viktor Bondarev said 11 April 2013. “The development of the aircraft is going as planned. The outline of its design and characteristics has been approved and all relevant documents have been signed allowing the industry to start the development of systems for this plane,” Bondarev said at a meeting with Russian lawmakers.

The Russian Air Force has tactical and technical requirements for a new generation of strategic bombers, as reported by Interfax. According to some sources, the PAK DA would be based on the supersonic Tu-160 bomber. Later references to the new bomber, including a televised address from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, seem to imply the aircraft will be an entirely new design. Some speculation suggests that it might follow the stealthy design of the America B-2 Spirit bomber, but there is little public evidence to support that.

The first full-size model of Russia’s future long-range bomber PAK DA, being developed for the Aerospace Force, has been created by the Tupolev company, a source in Russia’s defense-industrial complex told TASS 01 March 2017. "Several scale mock-ups of the PAK DA bomber have been made of composite materials. Also, there is a full-size mock-up made of wood. All models are based on the flying wing concept," the source said.

Its airframe will be made of radar-absorbent material. All weapons will be placed inside the fuselage. PAK DA will receive the NK-32 engine from the Tu-160, which has been upgraded beyond recognition. Although, what is the extra cost of R&D, if the unit is actually very technological and meets all modern requirements. It is planned that the maximum thrust will remain at the same level - about 24,000 - 25,000 kgf. "Also, PAK DA is to be equipped with the latest radioelectronic warfare equipment of domestic manufacture, unparalleled in terms of effectiveness," the source said. Another source in the Russian defense industry said the first test sample of a future bomber will perform its first flight by 2025. The plane will have a subsonic speed.

Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said earlier the PAK DA bomber may be presented to the public at large in 2018. Its parameters will exceed by far those of the existing bombers. The original plan was the first bombers would be delivered in 2023-2025, while the test flights were to be carried out in 2019-2020. Later, it was announced that the bomber’s creation was postponed in favor of resuming the serial production of the Tupolev-160 bomber.

The first prototype of the Russian PAK DA (PAK DA) is to be established in the early 2020s, a contract has been signed. This was reported 13 April 2017 by TASS source in the military-industrial complex. He said that the first stage of development work on a new strategic bomber was completed in 2016. "Now move on to the second stage:.. To develop a working design documentation and then - production of prototypes sample contract for works on this stage signed the military with the United Aircraft Corporation The first prototype is expected to make in the early 2020s", - said the source. The source said that the aircraft will be made under the scheme flying wing, which, he said, "other schemes are not considered or discussed, this option only was approved."

Initially it was assumed that the aircraft will enter the army in the years 2023-2025, the first test flight is scheduled for 2019-2020 years. Later it became known that the creation of the bomber is shifted due to the resumption of serial production of Tu-160. The first flight of the prototype PAK DA is planned for 2025.

Proposed long-range next generation plane being developed by the Tupolev design bureau will have a variety of functions. It will be configured as a bomber, command center or reconnaissance plane, as follows from memos compiled for a July 2018 meeting of the council for legislative support for the defense-industrial complex and military-technical cooperation under the Federation Council. "Next generation front-line aviation planes (Sukhoi-57) are being created for addressing a wide range of tasks. So are airborne command centers at the strategic and operative levels and reconnaissance and strategic aviation planes (PAK DA)," the memos sid.

The head of the Federation Council’s defense and security committee Viktor Bondarev said that research and development was nearing completion on a next generation long-range multifunctional plane that will replace Tupolev-22M3, Tupolev-95MS and eventually Tupolev-160. PAK DA is slated to enter duty in 2025-2030 after testing. Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said that a new strategic bomber might be presented to the public in 2018. PAK DA, he said, may make the first flight in 2025-2026 and begin to be batch-produced in 2028 or 2029.

In December 2019, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexei Krivoruchko in an interview with the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper said that the preliminary design of the PAK DA aircraft had been approved and Tupolev PJSC (as part of the United Aircraft Corporation) had begun to develop working design documentation.

As of early 2020 the first flight was planned for 2025. It had been planned that this would happen in 2020, but the return to production of the Tu-160 delayed the creation of a new bomber. In May 2020, TASS sources reported that the production of the first prototype of the new "strategist" had begun. The final assembly will be carried out at the Kazan Aviation Plant. S.P. Gorbunova.

Russia has begun construction of the first prototype strategic stealth bomber as part of the Advanced Aviation Complex for Long-Range Aviation (PAK DA, product 80). This was reported 26 May 2020 by TASS two sources in the military-industrial complex. "One of the aircraft factories in the structure of the United Aircraft Corporation will be engaged in the manufacture of glider elements of the first machine, the development of detailed design documentation has been completed, and the supply of materials has begun," the source said. As another TASS source specified, the aircraft cockpit is already being manufactured. "The final assembly of the entire machine should be completed in 2021," he said.

A demonstration model of a promising long-range aviation complex (PAK DA) is expected to be assembled by 2023. This was reported to TASS 02 August 2021 by a source in the aircraft industry. "At present, a prototype is being manufactured. It is assumed that the demonstration model will be ready by 2023," the source said.

In this utility model, Tupelov sought to design an engine air intake inside the aircraft that would be rigid and strong enough to provide air to the engine during all flight modes and possible changes in angles of attack.

Credit: Tupolev

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, subsequent sanctions by the West and embargoes on the supply of aerospace components do not appear to have deterred Moscow from development of its next-generation strategic bomber, the Tupolev PAK DA. In fact, the first flight of a prototype aircraft may come in 2024.

In May, an extremely interesting table showing the production plans of the Ilyushin Aviation Complex for 2022-30 could be found on the internet for just a few days. The numbers for civil aircraft in the table indicated the data was fresh, produced after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and under current economic conditions.

• Tupolev PAK DA is Russia’s answer to the B-21 Raider
• Leaked document indicates development continues
• Full-scale production likely to face difficulties

The Ilyushin Aviation Complex is an executive body for the Beriev Aircraft Co., which deals with special-purpose aircraft, including making parts for Russia’s answer to the U.S. Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider, the PAK DA bomber. According to the leaked table, Beriev is to make six sets of aggregate parts for test PAK DA aircraft by 2030: two each in 2023 and 2024, and one each in 2025 and 2026.

From other sources it is known that three flying test aircraft are planned to be built. Final assembly of the PAK DA bombers is set to be done by the Gorbunov Kazan Aviation Plant, a branch of the Tupolev Co.

The presence of the PAK DA in the leaked document means that the new wartime reality has not changed Russian plans—Moscow has no intention of abandoning this project.

Work on the new Russian strategic bomber has been launched and stopped several times, and for a long time it did not progress beyond projects on paper.

The current PAK DA program was launched in 2007 with the announcement of a design competition among Myasishchev, Sukhoi and Tupolev. Russia chose Tupolev, which won a three-year contract in August 2009 for research work code-named Poslannik, under which the company developed the conceptual design of the Product 80 aircraft. The Tu-160 Blackjack is Product 70. The project was approved by the Russian Defense Ministry in the spring of 2013.

In the next stage, on Dec. 27, 2013, the defense ministry contracted the preliminary technical design of the PAK DA. In May 2014, Viktor Bondarev, then-commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force, announced that the first flight of the PAK DA prototype would take place in 2019. “In 2023, state acceptance tests will be completed and supplies for the military will begin,” he added.

The program was revised in 2014, when, after the annexation of Crimea, Russia was subject to Western sanctions, and world oil prices dropped significantly. At that time, Russia changed its priorities and resumed production of the modernized Tu-160M, judging that program less expensive. The main efforts of the Tupolev design bureau and the Kazan production plant, as well as financial resources, were thrown into modernizing and resuming production of the Tu-160M. Meanwhile, the PAK DA program slowed down.

The Russians returned to the PAK DA at the end of 2017. On Dec. 27, 2017, Tupolev won a defense ministry contract for Poslannik-1 research and development work, including completion of the design of the Product 80 aircraft and  construction and trials of several test aircraft.

According to this contract, the aircraft was to complete acceptance tests by the end of August 2027. The day before the contract award, on Dec. 26, 2017, Tupolev also received a contract from Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry for the “Tekhnologiya-80” program covering the development of basic technologies including the engine and preparation of serial production of the aircraft.

What Is Known

Quite unusually for a Russian military project of such importance, the basic characteristics of the PAK DA are not secret. Long-Range Aviation Commander Anatoly Zhikharev said in August 2014 that the PAK DA would be a subsonic flying wing capable of reaching a distance of 15,000 km (9,300 mi.) without refueling. According to a less official but still trustworthy Russian source, the Product 80 bomber is planned to weigh 145 metric tons at takeoff and is supposed to be able to carry up to 30 tons of weapons. Thus, the PAK DA is almost half the weight of the Tu-160 (275 tons) and is situated between the 124-ton Tu-22M3 and 185-ton Tu-95MS.

This March, Tupolev released a patent for an engine air intake of an aircraft resembling the PAK DA. Of course, the drawing attached to the patent does not need to show the exact bomber under construction. The PAK DA wing likely has a constant leading-edge angle, without the kink, as shown in the patent drawing.

After the main contract was awarded, subcontractors responsible for individual PAK DA systems were selected—approximately 100 lower-tier contracts in total. Most are traditional Tupolev partners. The Russians are trying to make the PAK DA a low-risk program, and the use of revolutionary technologies in the bomber should not be expected. Years ago, when resuming production of the Tu-160, then-Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said that “the maximum number of technological operations will be common” for the Tu-160M and PAK DA. Some of the subsystems and weapons are common to both aircraft.

 

The PAK DA is slated to be powered by two turbofan engines supplied by the United Engine Corp. (UEC) Kuznetsov. The engines appear to be an upgraded version of the NK-32 used in the Tu-160. Indeed, the new engine is planned to be based on the core (hot section) of the NK-32-02 engine of the Tu-160M and is supposed to provide a maximum thrust of 23 tons (the legacy NK-32 engine has a thrust of 14 tons dry and 25 tons with afterburner). The TA18-200-80 auxiliary power unit for the PAK DA is made by Aerosila.

Notably, the engine program is also code-named MD-80, or “cruise engine for the aircraft 80.” This formulation suggests that the aircraft may also use other engines. Indeed, another document includes information about a SD1C takeoff engine intended for the PAK DA; it is a solid-propellant type probably used for rocket-assisted launch.

An integrated avionics system is being designed by Ramenskoye RPKB. The radar system is being developed by the Tikhomirov NIIP Institute—that is unusual, as TsNPO Leninets supplies the radars for other Tupolev bombers. The PAK DA will receive an active, electronically scanned array radar based on the one used by the Sukhoi Su-57 fighter. The bomber will also have an optoelectronic sight from an unknown manufacturer.

MNPK Avionika is building the KSU-80 flight control system. The NO-80 navigation suite is designed by Moscow’s MIEA Institute. The K36L-80 ejection seats and crew life-support system are being developed by the NPP Zvezda Co. Traditionally, Russian bomber crews are large: the Tu-160 and Tu-22M3 have a crew of four, as does the Tu-95MS—though at times the crew is as large as seven. The PAK DA also likely has a four-person crew, as evidenced by the order for 12 ejection seats for three test aircraft.

The KNIRTI Institute is responsible for the self-defense suite, which is planned to include electronic jammers, directional infrared countermeasures (made by NII Ekran), towed decoys (NII Ekran) and a chaff/flare dispenser system.

Data shows that the basic variant of the PAK DA will carry 12 Kh-BD (long-range) subsonic cruise missiles, most likely placed on six-round rotary launchers in two bays inside the airframe, similar to the Tu-160. This new missile is also planned to be the main weapon of modernized Tu-160M bombers. Rotary launchers for firing cruise missiles from internal weapon chambers are made by NPP Start in Yekaterinburg.

On Aug. 28, 2013, Raduga Co. received a contract from the Russian Defense Ministry for a research and development project called Romans, for what is now the Kh-BD (Product 506) missile. According to the contract, the missile was to begin flight tests in 2018 and complete state acceptance trials in 2020. These deadlines appear to have been missed. The plant in Smolensk is being prepared for series production of the Kh-BD. The same facility produces air-launched Raduga Kh-101/Kh-102 (Product 504) cruise missiles, used by the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS, at a rate of approximately three missiles per month.

No Kh-BD missile has ever been publicly presented. There is also no information about its characteristics, except that its range is much farther than for the current Kh-101/102. Considering the dimensions of the Tu-160’s internal weapon bay, the cross-section of the Kh-BD missile is likely close to that of the Kh-101/102, which already fully uses the available space. All that remains is to increase the length of the missile body. The Tu-160’s weapon compartment was designed in the 1970s to carry a large, 10.8-m-long  (35-ft.) Kh-45 missile. That original missile was abandoned, but the weapon compartment still contains a lot of free space, as the Kh-101/102 is about 7.4 m long.

Is This Realistic?

Anticipating anything in Russia is a high-risk activity these days. It is unknown what will happen in the nation within the next few months, much less years out.

But there are two arguments in favor of the PAK DA program. First, strategic bombers are the most important component of the Russian Air Force. Second, the program is so advanced that relatively little effort is required to complete the construction of several test aircraft.

In addition to its military significance, the PAK DA is important for Russia’s public image. During the Army exhibition in August 2021, Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov was asked to compare the PAK DA and the U.S. Air Force’s B-21. “We set ourselves the task of creating technology that surpasses the technology of other countries in terms of capabilities,” he replied.

The Russians’ mood may be spoiled by the Chinese Xian H-20, which will most likely be ready to fly earlier than the PAK DA.

Whether the PAK DA will begin series production and service will depend on factors that are difficult to quantify, both within and beyond the Russian aviation industry. Russia is unable to produce all the materials and components necessary for its aviation industry, especially electronics. If the Western embargo on deliveries, introduced after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, is effective, it could block aircraft production in Russia.

Another issue—less visible but no less acute—is that production tooling, both hardware and software, are almost entirely foreign to Russian industry. The Russians can use these tools for a while without manufacturer support, but that will become more and more difficult with each passing month.

The Analysis of the New airport planned for Ho Chi Minh City

 A few weeks ago I had posted a story about a "Airport/MRO" being built near Ho Chi Minh City, Now here is an expansion of the initial report.  I thought it was very enlightening.  Like I stated, I see the possibilities, if the Vietnamese can get it going, they can pull some major money away from the Chinese whom they really don't care for.  A lot of airlines including my employer send planes over there for overhaul.  I personally don't agree with that decision, but it isn't my call to make.  The Chinese don't work in nobody's interest but their own to the detriment of everyone else.

Construction of Vietnam’s USD16 billion, 100 million passenger per annum new airport for Ho Chi Minh City, the most populated city-region in the country, is at last under way, seven years after it was first mooted.

It will be one of the largest airport projects in the Asia Pacific region and the most expensive piece of infrastructure in Vietnam’s history.

Even now, it is subject to further possible delays as the government grapples to get 40 transport infrastructure projects back on track, some of them in preparation for an anticipated surge in foreign visitors.

But the most pressing issue remains the need to get the private sector on board; if not now, at least when the airport is operational, and there might be an opportunity for PPP financing and operation of future terminals.

Summary

• Formal construction work to start on Long Thanh airport, Vietnam, in Oct-2022.
• It is the most expensive infrastructure project in the country’s history.
• One of many transport infrastructure projects that have fallen behind schedule, including a high-speed rail link – the government takes remedial action.
• The new airport may be directed towards foreign airline movements.
• Careful thought should be given to the need for an airport city.
• The government still wants to work with the private sector both here and at other airports, but the ‘pitch has been queered’ somewhat by previous events.  

Long Thanh construction work to begin in Oct-2022: 4000m runway and a terminal building 

Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) announced that construction of the Long Thanh International Airport's passenger terminal will start in Oct-2022.

Piling work for the passenger terminal was completed one month ahead of the schedule and more than 14 million cubic metres of soil has been dug, filled and levelled.

Long Thanh Airport's construction is divided into three phases, with the first phase to include development of the terminal, a 4000m x 60m runway and facilities to accommodate 25 million passengers and 1.2 million tonnes of cargo per annum.

The airport is now expected to be completed in 2025, in its first stage. It will eventually be able to handle up to 100 million ppa.

Most expensive infrastructure project in the country’s history

The airport is the most expensive infrastructure project in Vietnam's history and it will replace the existing Tan Son Nhat International Airport as the city's main airport.

The first phase is costed at USD7.8 billion, with the eventual bill running to more than USD16 billion – which at today’s values would make it one of the most expensive in the world.

Location of Long Thanh Airport to the west of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Source: Wikipedia.

It has been a long, hard road to get this far.

In Vietnam breaks ground on Long Thanh airport: big ambitions, a CAPA report published in Jan-2021, it was revealed that the ground had finally been broken on the airport six years after it was first mooted.

At the beginning of Aug-2022 Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed the Dong Nai Provincial People's Committee to complete site clearance for the airport within the month.

Governing bodies and investors were urged to speed up approval of the design and construction of the main works to ensure that the plan is met. They were also directed urgently to select investors to deploy service works and ensure on-time completion.

One of many transport infrastructure projects that have fallen behind schedule 

The airport is not the only project that is lagging behind. In total 40 others in total include: road construction throughout the country, including two key ring roads, the high-speed rail line running on the north-south axis, and numerous other urban rail lines.

The government statement made clear that the amount of work that needs to be done is “very large,” and that the implementation time is “urgent,” so there is a need for direction, administration and coordination of activities among ministries, branches and localities.

Therefore, the establishment of a State Steering Committee was declared to be “essential”.

Existing airport was built during the Vietnam War – 40mppa in an airport built for 25mppa

An overall strategic transport infrastructure projects budget of VND734 trillion was set.

Finding a replacement for Tan Son Nhat (TSN) has also taken on an air of urgency. Tan Son Nhat is currently the only international airport in the Ho Chi Minh City Metropolitan Area, which covers 30,400 square kilometres (11,740 sq miles) and has an estimated population of 20-22 million inhabitants.

TSN was built during the Vietnam War to support war transportation, hence its location inside the crowded Ho Chi Minh City, where expansion is limited.

Owing to location and safety issues, it is difficult to expand the airport to meet the increasing annual growth of passengers. The maximum design capacity of Tan Son Nhat is 25 million passengers per annum, but in 2018 it exceeded 40 million and continued that way the following year, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ambitions multiply as Vietnam envisages over 200 mppa by 2038

The new airport was originally intended to supplement capacity at TSN but ambitions have gone beyond that, as Vietnam might now attract more than 205 million air passengers by 2038 (according to the most recent estimates).

Room for improvement in the network

There is room from improvement in the route network currently offered at TSN, as the network map below indicates.

The network is heavily oriented towards Southeast Asia and Australasia, with a mere handful of flights to Europe and just one to North America.

There are no flights connecting Latin America or Africa at all (although both will be connected via the Middle East).

Network map for Tan Son Nhat airport (TSN), Vietnam

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG.

But it is direct flights that drive the tourism from new markets.

The suggestion is that Vietnam Airlines will be the only Vietnamese airline to operate domestic flights at Long Thanh, while international services will only be operated by other airlines – suggesting that TSN will be Vietnam Airlines’ main base for a while after the new airport opens.

The existing airport has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic downturn

As the chart below shows, TSN has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic-influenced downturn, with effect from the second week of Jul-2022, when 2019 seat capacity levels were reached.

As that target has more or less been reached throughout the country as well, efforts can restart to attract the previously aspired-to level of tourism growth.

Ho Chi Minh City Tan Son Nhat Airport: weekly total system seats capacity, 2019-2022

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG

Government still seeks to work with the private sector, but it remains wary

The government’s comments about the need to ‘select investors to deploy service works’ requires clarification as it probably means the hiring of private contractors to complete these works rather than actual investors into the project.

Under current plans by the Vietnamese government, the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) will be the main investor in, and operator of, the airport, with The Southern Airports Corporation (a company registered under the Ministry of Transport) in charge of development of this project.

Financing has been an issue throughout, and much of it will come from the public purse, together with what loans can be engineered. The private sector looked as if it would play a major role at one time, but that possibility has diminished considerably since France’s Groupe ADP withdrew from a wider investment in Vietnamese airports.

In 2015 ADP was reported to be partnering with Credit Suisse in raising approximately USD3 billion for the Long Thanh International Airport development.

But eventually Groupe ADP’s interest in Vietnam as a whole diminished, following its failure in 2017 to secure a strategic investor stake in ACV and its 22 airports across Vietnam.

Groupe ADP had looked to tie up a deal with ACV whereby Groupe ADP would acquire a 7.4% equity stake, later 20%, and make long term investments there. An open sky policy between Vietnam and France was also on the cards.

Since then, the Ministry of Transport has consistently called for domestic and foreign private companies to invest in the project under public-private partnership arrangements. But following the pull-out by Groupe ADP, none of this has transpired.

It may well be that ACV’s strategy now is to finance the first stage of the airport from its own funds and loans (terminal, runway and other basic infrastructure), in the hope that it can then later attract private firms to co-operate by leasing one or more terminals or by entering into PPP deals to build and operate others.

The airport will eventually have four runways and four terminals unless it is scaled back, so there will be plenty of opportunities.

High-speed rail subject to the same hold-ups

A new high-speed rail service is proposed to be connected to the new airport as part of the Ho Chi Minh City-Nha Trang section of the North-South high-speed railway line (the one referred to earlier, which is also a matter of concern to the government and in need of being ‘speeded up.’)

The rail service will give passengers a more direct and efficient transit option to Ho Chi Minh City than there is by road, and the roads are already congested closer to the city centre.

Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh insisted competent agencies should be assigned to invest in the 37.5km railway route from Thu Thiem in Ho Chi Minh City to the Long Thanh airport. Total investment would be approximately VND40.6 trillion and through a private public partnership method.

Airport City development announced - too ambitious?

Meanwhile, further details have been released about a strategy to develop three urban areas around the new airport.

The envisaged 'airport city' will be associated with infrastructure for economic restructuring, building new urban areas, industrial clusters, training centres for scientific research and tourism services.

That sounds less like a designated airport city than an ‘aerotropolis’ stretching far away from the airport estate – but such investments can be hard to justify unless and until an airport is operational and building large numbers of passengers and freight volumes.

Monday Music "Flight of the Wild Geese" by Joan Armatage

 Sorry I didn't post, I have been busy, I will post in a few days with a compilation of what has been going on....and blogger has been giving me fits, they have been selecting a lot of my older post and putting them under review and I have been having to appeal then to get them reinstated....sheesh.

 I started this theme back in November of 2019?...With a couple of interruptions it has been consistent...Dang.

 

           Saw this meme and *rescued it from farcebook*, why? because I am a humanitarian, that's why.

I am continuing my string of "bugaloo" songs.  This discussion was started in the "Monster Hunter Nation, Hunters Unite", back in November of 2019? it is a Facebook group with enthusiast of the ILOH "International Lord of Hate" A.K.A Larry Correia.  We were talking about what song would we use if we looked out of our window or glanced at our security camera and saw this.....

One of the alphabet bois lining up to take down your house...What would be your "Valhalla" song and you would set it up to play as you load up magazines set up the Tannerite Rover, turn on the water irrigation system and fill it with gasoline instead of water and prepare yourself.

 I figured it would scar the alphabet boys if they come busting in and hearing a song from the 1980, an excellent Music Decade where we had a President that Loved America and Distrusted Government and made the comment during a speech "The most feared words in the English language to a true American was I am from the government and I am here to help.." and we listen to good music unlike the crap they listen to now sipping their soi latte's and comparing notes on the latest soyburger recipes and who wears the best manbuns in the team.

I decided to roll with this song because it is one of my favorite all time movies, 

   Here is the Premise;

Allen Faulkner, a former British Army colonel turned mercenary, arrives in London to meet merchant banker Sir Edward Matheson. The latter proposes an operation to rescue Julius Limbani, the imprisoned President of a southern African nation who is due for execution by General Ndofa. President Limbani is held in a remote prison in Zembala, guarded by a regiment of General Ndofa's troops known as the "Simbas".

Faulkner accepts the assignment and begins recruiting forty-nine mercenaries, including officers he had worked with previously: Capt. Rafer Janders, a skilled tactician, and Lt. Shawn Fynn, a former Irish Guards officer and pilot. Fynn also brings in Pieter Coetzee, a former soldier in the South African Defence Force who wishes only to return home and buy a farm. The mercenaries fly to Swaziland, where they are whipped into shape. With training complete, Janders exacts a promise from Faulkner to watch over his only son, Emile, should he not survive.

Because of an unexpected development, Faulkner is given only a day's notice to launch the mission. On Christmas Day, the fifty-man mercenary group parachute into Zembala by a HALO jump. One group rescues an alive, though sick, Limbani from a heavily guarded prison, while another group takes over a small, nearby airfield to await pick-up. Back in London, however, Matheson cancels the extraction flight at the last moment, having secured copper mining assets from General Ndofa in exchange for President Limbani. Stranded deep in hostile territory, the abandoned mercenaries fight their way through bush country, pursued by the Simbas. Many men, including Coetzee, are killed along the way.

The mercenaries make their way to Limbani's home village, hoping to start a rebellion, but realise that his people are too ill-equipped to fight. An Irish missionary living there informs the group of an old Douglas Dakota transport aircraft nearby that they can use to escape. As the Simbas close in, the mercenaries suffer heavy casualties holding them off in a climactic battle while Fynn starts the Dakota's engines. Janders is shot in the leg and unable to board the departing airplane. Faulkner is forced to kill him to spare him from capture and torture. The thirteen surviving mercenaries from the original fifty eventually manage to land at Kariba Airport, Rhodesia, but Limbani dies from a gunshot wound sustained during the escape.

Some months later, Faulkner returns to London and breaks into Matheson's home to confront him. Faulkner takes the half a million dollars in Matheson's safe to compensate the survivors and the families of those who died. Faulkner then kills Matheson and makes a swift getaway with Fynn. Faulkner fulfils his promise to Janders by visiting Emile at his boarding school. 

  Now here are some notes inter-spaced with some pics I took during the movie:

 

The film was based on a novel, The Thin White Line, which Euan Lloyd read prior to publication. He optioned it and hired Reginald Rose to write the screenplay in June 1976. The budget was US$9 million.

United Artists was enthusiastic about the film, but insisted Lloyd give the director's job to Michael Winner. Lloyd refused and instead chose Andrew V. McLaglen, son of Victor McLaglen, a British-born American previously known mainly for making westerns. Euan Lloyd had a friendship with John Ford who recommended McLaglen to direct the film. The finance for the film was raised partly by pre-selling it to distributors based on the script and the names of the stars who were set to appear.

The African nation in the film is not named, but it is clearly meant to be Zaire (the modern Democratic Republic of the Congo).The film's promotional literature made the link clear as The Wild Geese was promoted at the time as the story of "50 steelhard mercs who undertake a terrifying mission in dangerous, sweltering Central Africa-very much like the Old Congo-to rescue and bring out a deposed and imprisoned black president". The film's villain, General Ndofa, described in the film as an extremely corrupt and brutal leader of a copper-rich nation in central Africa, was a thinly disguised version of President Mobutu Sese Seko. Likewise, the character of Julius Limbani, the deposed pro-Western leader who was imprisoned following the hijacking of an airliner was based upon Moïse Tshombe. Finally, the film's hero, Colonel Allen Faulkner, described as a British mercenary living in South Africa, was based on Colonel Michael "Mad Mike" Hoare. Like Faulkner, Hoare was a former British Army officer living in South Africa who worked as a mercenary and had been hired to fight for the Tshombe government in the Congo in 1964-1965. Hoare served as the film's "military and technical adviser" and very much approved of the film, which he praised as a realistic depiction of the mercenary sub-culture

 

Although Lloyd had both Richard Burton and Roger Moore in mind for their respective roles from a relatively early stage, other casting decisions were more difficult. As the mercenaries were mostly composed of military veterans (some of whom had fought under Faulkner's command before), it was necessary to cast a number of older actors and extras into these physically demanding roles. A number of veterans and actual mercenary soldiers appeared in the film.

Northern Irish actor Stephen Boyd, a close friend of Lloyd's, was originally set to star as Sandy Young, the sergeant major who trains the mercenaries before their mission. However, Boyd died shortly before filming commenced and Jack Watson was chosen as a late replacement. He had previously played a similar role in McLaglen's 1968 film The Devil's Brigade.

Lloyd had offered the part of the banker Matheson to his friend Joseph Cotten. However, scheduling difficulties meant that he also had to be replaced, this time by Stewart Granger. 

 

Burt Lancaster originally hoped to play the part of Rafer Janders who in Carney's book was an American living in London. However, Lancaster wanted the part substantially altered and enlarged. The producers declined and in his place chose Richard Harris. Lloyd initially had reservations about casting Harris because of his wild reputation – he was blamed for Golden Rendezvous going over budget by $1.5 million due to his drinking and rewriting the script. The insurers only agreed to Harris' casting if Lloyd put up his entire salary as guarantee, Harris put up half of his $600,000 fee, and that the producer would sign a declaration at the end of every day saying Harris had not held up filming due to drinking, misbehaving or rewriting lines. "I'd already made enquiries about the hold ups on Golden Rendezvous", said Lloyd. "I discovered the blame was not entirely Richard's. So, as I wanted him for the part, I took the gamble. And it was a gamble. If he'd misbehaved and he'd started losing days it would have come out of my pocket." Harris did not know about the arrangement until the end of the shoot. 

 

Hardy Krüger was not the first actor considered for the role of Pieter Coetzee. Lloyd originally thought of Curd Jürgens, but felt that "Hardy seemed to fit." Krüger was also impressed by the script scenes played with Limbani.

"I was the only wild member of the cast", quipped Moore later. "Harris and Burton were on the wagon and Krüger never emerged from his room with his lady." Moore's character was nearly offered to O. J. Simpson after confusion on the American financier's part regarding the character being described as black Irish.

Lloyd hesitated before offering the role of Witty, the gay medic, to his longtime friend Kenneth Griffith. When finally approached, Griffith said "Some of my dearest friends in the world are homosexuals!" and accepted the part.

Percy Herbert, who played the role of Keith, was a veteran of World War II, in which he had been wounded in the defence of Singapore, then captured by the Imperial Japanese Army and interned in a POW camp. 

 

                                     The SGM "Sandy" and "Esposito"
 

Alan Ladd's son David Ladd and Stanley Baker's(Zulu) son Glyn Baker also had roles in the film. Ladd played the drug-dealing nephew of a London-based mob boss (Jeff Corey), and Baker played the young mercenary Esposito. With the cast made up from so many veteran actors, Baker claimed that the only reason he stayed alive in the plot so long was that he was one of the few actors young and fit enough to carry President Limbani for any period of time. David Ladd's character's girlfriend in the film was played by Anna Bergman, the daughter of Ingmar Bergman.

Ian Yule, who played Tosh Donaldson, had been a real mercenary in Africa in the 1960s and 1970s.He was cast locally in South Africa. He then brought his former commanding officer, Michael "Mad Mike" Hoare, who had led one legion of mercenaries, 5 Commando, Armée Nationale Congolaise (not to be confused with 5 Commando, the Second World War British Commando force), in the Congo Crisis of the 1960s, to be the technical adviser for the film. a role which he shared with Yule.

John Kani played Jesse Blake, a mercenary who had previously served with Faulkner and was struggling to live before the chance to work with Faulkner again. Palitoy based the figure "Tom Stone" (part of the Action Man team) on the character Blake after looking at the pre-production photos and posters of the film. Subsequently, some modifications to the figure were made. Kani made his debut in the film after years of acting and stage performances with Winston Ntshona. Ntshona was Limbani in the film and continued to make many more films with Kani after The Wild Geese.

Kani and Ntshona say they both turned down roles in the film at first after hearing it would be about mercenaries. However they changed their mind after reading the script. "The film could not come at a better time", said Kani. "We know exactly what is happening in Africa today and a movie that devotes – out of 120 minutes – even three quarters of a minute to say we need each other and to say that a white man can be just as much an African as a black man, that's important."

Rosalind Lloyd, who played Heather, is Euan Lloyd's daughter. Her mother, actress Jane Hylton, played Mrs Young. 

Principal filming took place in South Africa in the summer and autumn of 1977, with additional studio filming at Twickenham Film Studios in Middlesex. Roger Moore estimated location filming in Africa took about three months with the unit taking over a health spa near Tshipise in Northern Transvaal (now Limpopo); shooting also took place at Messina Border Region. The fictional country is said to lie on the border with Burundi, Rhodesia and Rwanda and Zambia, Uganda and Swaziland are also mentioned to be close by.

The rugby scenes were filmed over a period of two days at Marble Hill Park in Twickenham with extras drafted in from nearby Teddington Boys' School. Marble Hill Close near Marble Hill Park was also used as a location.

Most of the military equipment used in the film came from the South African army. However some special weaponry needed to be imported from Britain. "Even though the stuff couldn't fire real bullets, it was held up for weeks by the British government because it was going to South Africa", said Lloyd. South Africa was subjected to a mandatory arms embargo imposed by the United Nations Security Council Resolution 418 in 1977.

 

The music, by Roy Budd, originally included an overture and end title music, but both of these were replaced by "Flight of the Wild Geese," written and performed by Joan Armatrading. All three pieces are included on the soundtrack album, as well as the song "Dogs of War" that featured lyrics sung by the Scots Guards to Budd's themes. Budd used Borodin's String Quartet No. 2 as a theme for Rafer. The soundtrack was originally released by A&M Records then later released under licence as a Cinephile DVD.  

And finally a clip I had recorded form the movie that was a huge takeaway from the movie that all the protestors and other naysayers totally ignored in their attempts to "be woke" or as woke as the late 70's version was and there were protest against the movie. from the anti apartheid movement to other fringe groups.