Is the F-35 our AT-AT?
This post closely follows the structure of, and includes many direct quotes from, a recent article on the F-35: Is the F-35 a Trillion Dollar Mistake?,
in Bloomberg by Paul Barrett. The intent of this post is to portray
satirically the ridiculous acquisitions process in U.S. Defense. Mr.
Barrett’s article is well worth a read and my hope is this satirical
post will draw more attention to it.
The
ambition to create a heavily armored combat walker and troop transport,
the All-Terrain Armored Transport, or AT-AT, was what got the Imperial
Walker Development Program under way after the fall of the Republic. The
Imperial Research Projects Agency (IRPA), the Empire’s most
sophisticated and technologically advanced weapons development program,
began working at the behest of the Imperial Army to create a combat
transport that could provide sufficient firepower to operate in limited
numbers while deploying and supporting enough ground personnel to
quickly consolidate and exploit battlefield gains.
According
to an Imperial history of the AT-AT, IRPA sought assistance for
research and development of the walkers from the Kuat Drive Yards, the
construction site of the Imperial Navy’s signature capital ship — the
Star Destroyer. The selection of Kuat for research and development
seemed logical as the Kuat Yards were producing the next generation of
ships at the same time. Most AT-ATs will be deployed in Incom Dropships,
which the Empire retained in large numbers from the Republic. Incom,
however, never was able to return to its former glory after
Imperialization and the subsequent defection of many of its top
engineers.
About
twenty years ago, the IRPA-Kuat Yards collaboration had produced a
preliminary combat walker concept. Imperial weapons procurement
leadership decided that in order to produce a significant number of
armored transport walkers on an accelerated timeline, the preliminary
concept would be green-lighted without additional testing or soliciting
alternative platform ideas. Kuat Yards would use the basic frame of the
AT-AT to design modified walkers more suited to other purposes. One
modification would be known as the All-Terrain Armored Cargo Transport,
or AT-ACT. As one program manager says, “after this, there was no other
walker program.”
The
AT-AT was intended to combine transport and combat vehicles built from a
standard base model. The base model, designed to accommodate modular
additions for alternate missions, was also intended to reduce costs and
speed production time across all variants. Variants could be mutually
supportive — the Empire could press cargo walkers into supporting a
mission primarily resourced with transport walkers. Transport walkers
could still provide some cargo capacity while constructing new outposts.
The AT-AT program was desperately needed, so the thinking went, to
quell rising unrest in the Empire. Its presence was expected to serve as
a psychological and tactical blow to any opposition. At the onset, the
contract was estimated to be worth 200 billion credits over three
decades. Kuat Yards, which is based in Lothal, in the Outer Rim
Territories, began construction of the approved base model of imperial
walkers, the AT-AT.
But
this one-size-fits-all plan quickly encountered problems. The base
model AT-AT had the capacity to carry a platoon of Storm Troopers, or 40
troops. The vehicle could also transport speeder bikes, or numerous
proton mines. The command section had blasters and cannons mounted to
the front. The substantial armor plating could take quite a lot of enemy
attention as well. But, with all that bulk, maneuverability had to be
compromised. And, in order to make the vehicle passably “all-terrain”
the four legs would need to be massive, with many complex parts. The
computing power alone required to keep a walker moving and balanced, not
even considering targeting systems, required as large a computer as the
typical TIE Fighter.
Bulkier
variants like the AT-ACT were less mobile and required even more
complexity to operate. The degree to which components for the base model
AT-AT could be used in modified walkers was well below the initial
projections of the program. The AT-ACT was intended to use 70 percent of
the AT-AT’s components. But, the added weight of the specified cargo
capacity for the AT-ACT required a redesign of the transport bed. The
cargo walker could not carry anywhere near the number of troops that the
transport walker would support. Instead, a newly designed section was
required. The cargo specifications also were heavier than the troop
transport section and so more complex components were needed to manage
the extra weight. A pattern of continual reengineering resulted in
billions of credits in cost overruns and years of delays.
Ten
years ago, the Empire accepted delivery of scores of walkers, even as
Kuat Yards continued to make design changes and address numerous
deficiencies reported from the field. Once new weapon systems are in the
hands of the Imperial services, says Grand Moff Jame Prowa, a former
Imperial acquisition officer, “there’s a lot of inertia to continue, no
matter what.” Mykes Rhine, a Kuat Yards spokesman, declined to comment
on what he called the “ancient history” of this period.
Part
of the problem stemmed from a policy aimed at reducing red tape
instituted during the first decade of the AT-AT program. “There was a
notion of trying to skinny down the acquisition bureaucracy,” says
retired Grand General Norsch, who served as Imperial Army chief of
staff. “In doing so, we regrettably lost much of the systems engineering
ability that existed in-house.”
The
“cost plus” contracts the Empire signed with Kuat Yards only
exacerbated the situation. Kuat Yards was reimbursed for all its costs
and was eligible for a performance-based bonus after that. Despite the
program’s disarray and frequent cost overruns, which would be
reimbursed, the Empire consistently awarded Kuat Yards 85 percent of its
potential performance payments in addition to costs. An Imperial Army
officer, General Davhe, refused to lower the bonus pool any further and
at one time said: “I like the program manager on the Kuat Drive Yards
side, and he tells me if he gets less than 85 percent, he’s going to get
choked out by Darth Vader.”
Instead,
it was Davhe who was choked out. Vader, who has an MBA from Stanford,
switched the Kuat Yards contract to a fixed-price arrangement under
which the Empire and Kuat split the cost overruns. With the program
about seven years behind schedule, the Empire estimates it will spend
379 billion credits over 40 years to develop and acquire more than 2,000
walkers. Adjusting for inflation, that’s a 38 percent increase from the
initial estimate. Add more than 600 billion credits for upkeep, and the
total price tag approaches 1 trillion credits. But the walkers have
already generated a profit for Kuat Yards. Having delivered only 210
AT-ATs and AT-ACTs thus far, Kuat is expected to derive more than 20
percent of its revenue this year from the walker program alone.
For
all its stumbles, the program’s geospatial and political heft make it
too big to fail. The multiple versions of the walker require a total of
some 300,000 parts, and Kuat Yards has parceled out the subcontracting
to all but five unlucky regions. Kuat Yards says the AT-AT directly or
indirectly supports 146,000 jobs across the Empire, ranging from
minimum-wage broom-pushers to engineers paid well into six figures. And,
the program has become popular with the Imperial Governors. Imperial
walker squadrons have begun to take up positions throughout the
territories providing maintenance and contractor jobs at each location.
Perhaps not coincidentally, as the squadrons are pushed out and become
operational, the reviews from the imperial and military bureaucracy have
been largely positive.
Some
experts, however, warn that tests and mock battles are different from
the real thing — and that imperial enthusiasm should be viewed
skeptically. “It’s groupthink,” says Grand Moff Jame Prowa, who oversaw
acquisitions during the Clone Wars. According to other experts, many of
them also with combat experience, the AT-AT will need support from other
weapons platforms to locate and avoid threats due to performance
deficiencies. The walkers are slow, especially relative to enemy
aircraft, and while they are armored they remain vulnerable at points.
The walkers will be able to shoot down enemy craft, but it is unlikely
that the enemy will be so accommodating as to undertake a frontal
assault against the strongest part of the walkers’ defenses. Therefore,
in order to be effective, walkers will have to operate alongside
Imperial fighters in support. The Empire’s acquisition leadership
contends that the lack of maneuverability ignores a basic point about
contemporary warfare: up-close dogfighting is a relic of earlier
conflicts, these officials say. When the Empire pushes walkers out into
combat, the Imperial Navy would have already taken care of the enemy’s
fighters allowing the walkers to do what they are designed to do: deploy
and support ground troops.
While
that might be the case, it is a far cry from the initial plan for this
weapons platform thirty years ago. The Imperial Army sought a
self-sufficient combat transport to deploy and support ground personnel.
The walkers, at least the transport walkers, can deliver a platoon of
troops while providing supporting firepower. But, the vehicles are
clearly not as self-sufficient as hoped. At present, only about 10
percent of the planned units have been fielded, many requiring upgrades.
And, all of this has come at a bill that may exceed 1 trillion credits
rather than the 200 billion credits initially planned.
I need one. The Zombie Apocalypse is going to happen. Soon. I feel it. I r skerred.
ReplyDeleteGood tongue in cheek review... :-)
ReplyDeleteOn the more serious side of things, I wish our Air Force would order a new batch of the tried and true F-16s and F-15s (still in production for other militaries) until it either gets the F-35 to fly right (or gives up the fantasy that it ever will).
ReplyDelete