The Western Alliance has discovered the secret of increasing their defence spending.

 Like I mentioned a few days ago, Germany had approved an increase of her GDP, apparently Russia's aggression toward the Ukraine has encourage the assorted NATO members to finally spend the 2% of GDP that they were supposed to spend and apparently all of them are doing it.  Russia invading the Ukraine was a wakeup call.

Denmark and Sweden, represented here by Swedish Air Force Saab Gripens (foreground) and Danish Air Force F-16s, have pledged to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP.

Credit: Danish Ministry of Defense

European governments have embarked on dramatic increases in expenditures in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Fears of reduced defense spending after the COVID-19 pandemic appear to have largely evaporated, as nations pledge to accelerate plans to reach or exceed NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP.

• Poland aims to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP
• Denmark considers repealing opt-out from European defense and security initiatives

Aviation Week Network analysis suggests that annual spending for the 16 largest European defense budgets could rise from around €311 billion ($340 billion) now to over $400 billion by 2030—and potentially more than $460 billion if all decide to meet the NATO 2% target.

But European governments will need to reexamine their defense commitments and doctrines before the resources can be used—and the investments are likely to focus on improving readiness, posture and deployability as much as on equipment modernization over the next decade.

Germany was the first to react to the invasion with budget changes. Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the creation of a €100 billion ($110 billion) fund to address urgent capability gaps and an accelerated move toward  the NATO defense spending target of 2% of GDP.  By comparison, the predecessor Merkel administration had pledged to raise spending to just 1.5% of GDP by 2024 (AW&ST March 7-20, p. 20).

Since Scholz’s Feb. 27 statement, Germany has been joined by Denmark, France, Latvia, Poland and Sweden in announcing planned increases in defense spending, with more nations expected to follow suit.

French President Emmanuel Macron said in a national address that France would increase its investments in defense. “[Europe] must become a power for peace,” he said.

“We can no longer depend on others to defend us, be it on land, at sea, under the sea, in the air, in space or in cyber-space. . . . To this end, our European defense must step up,” Macron said.

Sweden confirmed it will raise defense spending to 2% of GDP. Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said at a March 10 press conference that the budget increases would be allocated “as soon as it is practically possible.”

“In a situation where tensions in our immediate area are worse than in several decades, we need to continue to strengthen our defense capabilities,” Andersson said.

Stockholm had already been taking steps to boost its defense capabilities in response to Russia’s actions in Crimea in 2014, with ministers originally planning to increase defense spending by 85% between 2014 and 2025, the largest rearmament by the Scandinavian country since the 1950s. Spending is being immediately boosted to strengthen capability in the short term, but work is underway to find “a stable, long-term and solidary financing of the expansion,” Andersson noted. “The expansion must rest on a stable foundation for us to be able to have a strong and secure defense.”

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis says Bucharest will raise spending from 2% of GDP to 2.5%. “[The additional funding will] ensure better conditions for our armed forces, in order to better train and respond more effectively to the operational needs of the Romanian Army and current and future security challenges,” he says. Defense spending in Romania has already more than doubled, to $6.1 billion from $2.8 billion, since Crimea’s annexation. Bucharest’s investments included the purchase of more secondhand F-16 fighters, along with Patriot air and missile defense batteries, coastal defense weapons and rocket artillery systems from the U.S.

In early March, Poland’s parliament began drafting new laws that would enable Warsaw to further increase national defense spending to 3% of GDP to give the country’s armed forces a “greater deterrent potential,” says Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak. Ministers hope to enable the spending increase next year. It was previously envisioned that Poland would boost defense spending by 2.5% of GDP by 2023.

“This is an act that will allow us not only to increase the size of the Polish Army but also to spend on the Polish Armed Forces, restore the reserve system, encourage soldiers to remain in service and implement the concept of universal defense,”  Blaszczak says.

Denmark has also pledged to raise defense spending permanently to 2% of GDP—albeit at a slower rate than some of its neighbors, achieving the goal by 2033. Current annual spending sits at 1.4% of GDP.

In another notable change, Copenhagen is also looking to repeal its opt-out from European defense and security initiatives. The government is planning to hold a referendum in June on reversing the policy.

“Denmark must be fully involved in the development of European defense and security policy,” says Danish Defense Minister Morten Bodskov. “Russia’s aggression on Ukraine threatens European peace and stability. Therefore, the times call for a gear shift.”